Brian Sullivan (@MadManScouting)

There are two things I’m addicted to; scouting, and gambling. And I’m all out of prospects to scout. Ok, not really, but I don’t get into my scouting until after the Super Bowl for the most part. So, back to gambling, after looking at every roster and schedule, here are my favorite Over/Under bets if you need to adopt a new team.

Take These Over Bets

NOTE – For each team, I’ll bold every game that I’m fairly confident the team will win.

Indianapolis Colts – 6.5 Wins

Schedule

Sunday Sept. 9 Cincinnati Bengals Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 16 Washington Redskins Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 23 Philadelphia Eagles Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 30 Houston Texans Home 1:00 pm
Thursday Oct. 4 New England Patriots Away 8:20 pm
Sunday Oct. 14 New York Jets Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 21 Buffalo Bills Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 28 Oakland Raiders Away 4:05 pm
Sunday Nov. 4 BYE WEEK
Sunday Nov. 11 Jacksonville Jaguars Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 18 Tennessee Titans Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 25 Miami Dolphins Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 2 Jacksonville Jaguars Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 9 Houston Texans Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 16 Dallas Cowboys Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 23 New York Giants Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 30 Tennessee Titans Away 1:00 pm

This is the easiest one out there. Seriously Vegas… 6 and a half? Six and a half games… Has Andrew Luck ever won fewer than 7 games? No. He has not. I was actually pretty conservative with my bolds. Let’s say the Colts underachieve and ONLY win 5 against the teams I bolded. They just need to win two more against the following; Washington, Dallas, their rivals again, and the Jets. Let’s chalk up the Eagles and Patriots as Ls, besides that, every other game is very winnable. 7 wins is borderline guaranteed.

Los Angeles Rams – 10 Wins

Schedule

Monday Sept. 10 Oakland Raiders Away 10:20 p.m.
Sunday Sept. 16 Arizona Cardinals Home 4:05 p.m.
Sunday Sept. 23 Los Angeles Chargers Home 4:05 p.m.
Thursday Sept. 27 Minnesota Vikings Home 8:20 p.m.
Sunday Oct. 7 Seattle Seahawks Away 4:25 p.m.
Sunday Oct. 14 Denver Broncos Away 4:05 p.m.
Sunday Oct. 21 San Francisco 49ers Away 8:20 p.m.
Sunday Oct. 28 Green Bay Packers Home 4:25 p.m.
Sunday Nov. 4 New Orleans Saints Away 4:25 p.m.
Sunday Nov. 11 Seattle Seahawks Home 4:25 p.m.
Monday Nov. 19 Kansas City Chiefs Home 8:15 p.m.
BYE WEEK
Sunday Dec. 2 Detroit Lions Away 1:00 p.m.
Sunday Dec. 9 Chicago Bears Away 1:00 p.m.
Sunday Dec. 16 Philadelphia Eagles Home 8:20 p.m.
Sunday Dec. 23 Arizona Cardinals Away 4:05 p.m.
Sunday Dec. 30 San Francisco 49ers Home 4:25 p.m.

So looking at the games I’ve bolded, you’ll notice it’s only 6. But, you’ll also notice that almost all of the Rams toughest opponents are at home. Chargers? At home. Vikings? At home. Eagles? At home. Packers? At home. They do have to travel to New Orleans, but besides that, their road schedule is very manageable. They are very capable of going 4-2 or 5-1 in their own division, especially with how well they match up against Seattle and Arizona. They could easily win against Chicago and Detroit back to back. There are 0 games on their schedule that I would bold as “fairly certain they will lose”. The unbolded ones feel about 50/50 to 60/40. So can they win 5 of those 10 games? Probably.

Chicago Bears – 6.5 Wins

Schedule

Sunday Sept. 9 Green Bay Packers Away 8:20 pm
Monday Sept. 17 Seattle Seahawks Home 8:15 pm
Sunday Sept. 23 Arizona Cardinals Away 4:25 pm
Sunday Sept. 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 7 BYE WEEK
Sunday Oct. 14 Miami Dolphins Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 21 New England Patriots Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 28 New York Jets Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 4 Buffalo Bills Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 11 Detroit Lions Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 18 Minnesota Vikings Home 1:00 pm
Thursday Nov. 22 Detroit Lions Away 12:30 pm
Sunday Dec. 2 New York Giants Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 9 Los Angeles Rams Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 16 Green Bay Packers Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 23 San Francisco 49ers Away 4:05 pm
Sunday Dec. 30 Minnesota Vikings Away 1:00 pm

This is a great example of a team that made all of the right moves under the radar, but because there QB is unproven, the public is still low on. People don’t realize that this is one of the most balanced rosters in the NFL, and that their new coaching staff, along with their additions on offense, should significantly improve this team. This is a very workable schedule. They’re capable of beating any of their division rivals, especially at home; they’ve competed with them in the past with worse teams. Even if they only go 2-4 in the division, they should go 3-1 against the AFC East. That’s 5 wins right there. They should handle Tampa at home for #6. Can they beat one of Seattle at home, Arizona on the road, or the Giants on the road? They get New England at home early as well, so they could be that one team that pulls off the Patriots upset this season. Or can they pull off just ONE fluke upset? I think they can. I see 8-10 wins for them.

Atlanta Falcons – 9 Wins

Schedule

Thursday Sept. 6 Philadelphia Eagles Away 8:20 pm
Sunday Sept. 16 Carolina Panthers Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 23 New Orleans Saints Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 30 Cincinnati Bengals Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Home 1:00 pm
Monday Oct. 22 New York Giants Home 8:20 pm
Sunday Oct. 28 BYE WEEK
Sunday Nov. 4 Washington Redskins Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 11 Cleveland Browns Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 18 Dallas Cowboys Home 1:00 pm
Thursday Nov. 22 New Orleans Saints Away 8:20 pm
Sunday Dec. 2 Baltimore Ravens Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 9 Green Bay Packers Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 16 Arizona Cardinals Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 23 Carolina Panthers Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Away 1:00 pm

So again, I’m trying to be EXTRA conservative with my “games that are bold”. So I didn’t bold road games against Cleveland and Washington, which should both be wins but I’ll give those teams some respect. They also should manage a win against New Orleans at home, but both teams are capable of sweeping one another. I assume they’ll sweep Tampa, and they very well could sweep Carolina as well. Dallas at home is also a very winnable game. I see losses on the road against Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Green Bay. Every other game, I believe Atlanta should be favored. They may let up one or two, but I can’t see them finishing worse than 10-6 with the talent and continuity they possess.

Take These Under Bets

NOTE – For each team, I’ll bold every game that I’m fairly confident the team will lose.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 9 Wins

Sunday Sept. 9 New York Giants Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 16 New England Patriots Home 4:25 pm
Sunday Sept. 23 Tennessee Titans Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 30 New York Jets Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 7 Kansas City Chiefs Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 14 Dallas Cowboys Away 4:25 pm
Sunday Oct. 21 Houston Texans Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 28 Philadelphia Eagles Home 9:30 am
Sunday Nov. 4 BYE WEEK
Monday Nov. 11 Indianapolis Colts Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 18 Pittsburgh Steelers Home 8:20 pm
Sunday Nov. 25 Buffalo Bills Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 2 Indianapolis Colts Home 1:00 pm
Thursday Dec. 6 Tennessee Titans Away 8:20 pm
Sunday Dec. 16 Washington Redskins Home 1:00 pm
TBD TBD Miami Dolphins Away TBD
Sunday Dec. 30 Houston Texans Away 1:00 pm

The Jaguars were very fun to watch last year. They still have a dominant defense, but I think we might have blown it out of proportion. They got absolutely torn to shreds by Big Ben and Tom Brady in the Playoffs. Now, they have to take on Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson twice. They were swept by Tennessee last season, and they’ll likely lose one to them again. They could go 1-5 or 2-4 in their division and I wouldn’t be surprised. Every NFC East game will be tough. The Steelers will be tough. The Patriots will be tough. The Chiefs will be tough. The Jets beat them last year, and now they have Sam Darnold. Unders are tough, but this one I feel pretty good about.

Buffalo Bills – 6.5 Wins

Schedule

Sunday Sept. 9 Baltimore Ravens Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 16 Los Angeles Chargers Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 23 Minnesota Vikings Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 30 Green Bay Packers Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 7 Tennessee Titans Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 14 Houston Texans Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 21 Indianapolis Colts Away 1:00 pm
Monday Oct. 29 New England Patriots Home 8:15 pm
Sunday Nov. 4 Chicago Bears Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 11 New York Jets Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 18 BYE WEEK
Sunday Nov. 25 Jacksonville Jaguars Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 2 Miami Dolphins Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 9 New York Jets Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 16 Detroit Lions Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 23 New England Patriots Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 30 Miami Dolphins Home 1:00 pm

I don’t even think that the Bills are THAT bad. I kinda like Josh Allen. But this schedule is absolutely brutal. The AFC South and the NFC North both are loaded with playoff contenders. They have to take on the LA Chargers as well, and playing in Baltimore is no picnic, especially when you lack offensive firepower. The Jets and Dolphins aren’t great, but even if they sweep them, which I doubt, do you see 3 other wins on this schedule?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6.5 Wins

Schedule

Sunday Sept. 9 New Orleans Saints Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Sept. 16 Philadelphia Eagles Home 1:00 pm
Monday Sept. 24 Pittsburgh Steelers Home 8:15 pm
Sunday Sept. 30 Chicago Bears Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 7 BYE WEEK
Sunday Oct. 14 Atlanta Falcons Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 21 Cleveland Browns Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Oct. 28 Cincinnati Bengals Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 4 Carolina Panthers Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 11 Washington Redskins Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 18 New York Giants Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Nov. 25 San Francisco 49ers Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 2 Carolina Panthers Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 9 New Orleans Saints Home 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 16 Baltimore Ravens Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 23 Dallas Cowboys Away 1:00 pm
Sunday Dec. 30 Atlanta Falcons Home 1:00 pm

Another team with a brutal schedule. I don’t think they can beat New Orleans or Atlanta. I wouldn’t be shocked if they go 0-6 in this division. I assume the NFC East will sweep them. They might go 1-3 against the AFC North. San Francisco and Chicago both improved more than they did this offseason. Sorry Bucs fans.

Odds From https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-over-under-win-totals As Of 8-11-2018

Image Credit – https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2018/5/8/17327096/report-julio-jones-might-want-raise-this-offseason-falcons

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